Tanzania's Democracy on Trial: Opposition Leader Jailed as Hassan Heads for Election Victory

In an election marred by the imprisonment of main opposition leader Tundu Lissu and the exclusion of major political rivals, President Samia Suluhu Hassan is poised to extend the CCM party's 64-year rule in what critics describe as Tanzania's least competitive electoral contest in decades.
A Democracy Shackled
As Tanzanians head to the polls today, October 29, 2025, the nation finds itself at a critical juncture. With over 37 million registered voters casting ballots for president, parliament members, and local councillors, the electoral process has been overshadowed by a systematic crackdown on dissent that has eliminated meaningful competition against the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party .
The atmosphere is particularly charged in the economic hub of Dar-es-Salaam, though security forces maintain a visible presence nationwide. While authorities claim this is necessary to ensure order, opposition parties and human rights organizations accuse the government of using intimidation tactics against supporters and observers .
"This election is completely a sham," John Kitoka, a Chadema party member currently in hiding to avoid arrest, told Al Jazeera. "The government has systematically dismantled any credible opposition to ensure there is no real challenge to President Samia's rule" .
The Imprisonment of Tundu Lissu
At the heart of the pre-election controversy is Tundu Lissu, the charismatic and widely popular leader of the main opposition party Chadema. Currently marking his 202nd day in detention, Lissu has been imprisoned since April 9 after being accused of treason and incitement .
The charges stem from comments Lissu made during a Chadema rally in the southern town of Mbinga on April 3, where he urged supporters to boycott the elections if Hassan's government did not institute electoral reforms before the vote. Specifically, Lissu was calling on the government to change the makeup of the Independent National Election Commission, arguing that the agency should not include people appointed directly by Hassan .
In a dramatic development just days before the election, Lissu revealed he had been placed in isolation at his detention facility. Fellow inmates who previously shared his cell have been moved, leaving him "completely alone," according to a statement posted on his X account on Monday night .
Lissu's legal troubles intensified when his treason trial was unexpectedly adjourned until November 3—ensuring he would remain imprisoned throughout the election—after prosecutors failed to produce witnesses. In court, Lissu lambasted the state's strategy, declaring, "This application is meant to prolong this case so I remain in prison until the General Election passes" .
This is not the first time Lissu has been targeted for his political activities. He survived an assassination attempt in 2017 when he was shot 16 times, requiring emergency medical evacuation to Kenya and then Belgium for specialized treatment. The head of Tanzania's parliament subsequently revoked Lissu's parliamentary seat in 2019 over alleged "absenteeism" during his lengthy recovery .
Systematic Elimination of Political Opposition
The exclusion of viable challengers to President Samia Suluhu Hassan has been methodical and comprehensive:
Party Disqualification
Three days after Lissu's arrest in April, the electoral commission disqualified Chadema from this election—and all others until 2030—on the grounds that the party had failed to sign a mandatory Electoral Code of Conduct due on April 12. The move came after Lissu and other party leaders refused to sign the document without structural electoral reforms .
Candidate Barring
In August, the elections commission also barred Luhaga Mpina, the presidential candidate of ACT-Wazalendo, the second-largest opposition party. Mpina, a parliament member who broke away from the ruling CCM in August to join ACT-Wazalendo, was blocked for allegedly failing to follow the rules for nominations during the presidential primaries .
Arrests and Intimidation
The crackdown extended beyond high-profile leaders. John Heche, deputy chairperson of Chadema, was arrested while attempting to attend Lissu's trial at the High Court in Dar-es-Salaam. He has not been seen since, with Chadema alleging he is being transported to Tarime, a northern town more than 1,300km away .
The pattern of repression has been documented by human rights organizations. Amnesty International warned that the elections "risk becoming a procedural affair devoid of legitimacy," citing politically-motivated charges against government opponents and 83 disappearances of opposition party members during the campaign period .
The Presidential Candidates: A Limited Field
With major opposition parties and candidates excluded, the presidential race features Samia Suluhu Hassan against 16 lesser-known contenders from minor parties . The table below provides a comprehensive list of candidates:

Candidate NamePartyParty AffiliationSamia Suluhu Hassan | CCM | Ruling Party
Saum Rashid | UDP | Minor Party
Kunje Ngombale Mwiru | AAFP | Minor Party
Yustas Rwamugira | TLP | Minor Party
Wilson Mulumbe | ADC | Minor Party
Augustine Lyatonga Mrema | NLD | Minor Party
Hashim Rungwe Mapunda | CCK | Minor Party
John Momose Cheyo | MAKINI | Minor Party
Seif Hamad Magango | NRA | Minor Party
Paul Rupia | UPDP | Minor Party
Stephen Masato Ngulube | CUF | Minor Party
Joseph Musukuma Mbilinyi | TPP | Minor Party
Godfrey Zambi | MUNU | Minor Party
Leonard Samwela | NCCR-Mageuzi | Minor Party
Michael Ngaleku | PPT | Minor Party
Anna Mghanga | TaSiKwa | Minor Party
Juma Duni Haji | DP | Minor Party

FigurePartyStatusTundu Lissu | Chadema | Arrested, detained, and disqualified
Luhaga Mpina | ACT-Wazalendo | Disqualified for nomination non-compliance
Chadema Party | N/A | Entire party disqualified until 2030

None of the candidates facing Hassan have established national political presence or significant party machinery, making the incumbent virtually unchallenged in what analysts describe as a deeply uncompetitive contest .
Election Conduct and International Observation
The conduct of the 2025 elections has raised serious concerns among international observers and human rights advocates:
Media and Digital Restrictions
In the lead-up to the polls, Tanzanian authorities restricted access to social media platform X (formerly Twitter), with full access reserved for government officials. Critics argued that the move limited online civic participation and reduced the flow of information during the final days of the campaign .
The country routinely restricts access to social media on specific occasions, such as during protests. Only select traditional media have been approved to provide coverage of the elections .
Limited International Observation
For the first time in recent elections, Tanzania initially limited the participation of regional and international observer missions. Organizations such as the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the East African Community (EAC) were not fully accredited to observe the process, though both organizations eventually deployed observation missions in late October .
Analysts from the Institute for Security Studies noted that the absence of international observers could affect transparency and undermine public confidence in the results .
Regional Implications and International Response
The political situation in Tanzania has drawn concern from international partners and human rights organizations.
The United Nations human rights agency and Human Rights Watch have documented reports of rights violations under Hassan's government, noting in particular the disappearance of two regional activists, Boniface Mwangi from Kenya and Agather Atuhaire from Uganda, who traveled to witness Lissu's trial but were detained in Dar-es-Salaam in May 2025 .
"More than 200 cases of enforced disappearance have been recorded in Tanzania since 2019," the UNHCR noted in its reporting .
The United States and other democracies face increasing calls to employ a mix of incentives and pressure on the Tanzanian government to unconditionally drop the charges against Lissu, permit political parties to field their chosen candidates, and implement reforms that would restore credibility to the country's electoral process .
A Precarious Future
As voting concludes and tallying begins, Tanzania faces profound questions about its democratic future. With the opposition decimated and critical voices suppressed, President Samia Suluhu Hassan appears certain to secure another term at the helm of East Africa's second-largest economy.
However, the long-term stability of the nation remains uncertain. Rising unemployment and underemployment among Tanzania's huge population of young people—more than three-quarters of citizens are below the age of 35—increase the risk of instability if frustration grows over a chronic lack of opportunities for economic advancement, ineffective governance, and the inability to hold political leaders accountable .

The events unfolding in Tanzania represent not just a national crisis, but a test for democratic principles across East Africa. How the international community responds to the marginalization of political opposition and the outcome of these contested elections will have significant repercussions for freedom and stability in the region for years to come