Despite currently sitting second in the 2025–26 Premier League standings, Manchester City remain one of the most dangerous and persistent title contenders, capable of overtaking Arsenal as the season enters its critical final phase. Here’s an in-depth look at why City could yet snatch the title — and why their chase should be taken seriously.
1. Momentum Shift After Arsenal’s Stumbles
Arsenal’s recent slip-ups, including drawing 2–2 with bottom-placed Wolves after leading 2-0, have significantly boosted City’s title hopes. That result cut Arsenal’s cushion at the top and brought City within striking distance — with City still holding a game in hand that could reduce the gap to just two points if they win it.
Arsenal have won only two of their last seven league matches, a concerning slump for a team seeking a maiden title in two decades. That downturn in form gives Manchester City a clear opening to mount a sustained challenge.
2. Experience in Title Races
Manchester City’s recent track record speaks for itself. The club has become synonymous with late-season surges, overtaking rivals with clinical consistency when it matters most. Even if Arsenal build leads, City’s experience and relentless mentality keep them within touching distance — and history suggests they thrive under pressure.
City have also shown that they can perform consistently over the long haul: they’ve regularly closed significant point gaps late in campaigns and finished strongly when it matters most.
3. Games In Hand — A Strategic Advantage
Having a game in hand is a psychological and mathematical edge. While Arsenal have had more games played, City’s opportunity to make up points without depending on Arsenal results gives them clear control over their own destiny. If they secure victories in those additional fixtures, they’ll tighten the title race and put pressure right back on the leaders.
4. Strong Title Odds and Statistical Backing
Even with Arsenal leading, bookmakers and statistical models still favour Manchester City as a serious threat. Recent title odds after Arsenal dropped points still gave City a roughly 31 % chance of overtaking the Gunners — a not-insignificant figure in a league as unpredictable as the Premier League.
Analytical models like Opta’s supercomputer also show City close enough in expected finishing positions that a late rally remains plausible if Arsenal continue to drop points.
5. Tactical Depth and Squad Rotation
City’s ability to rotate effectively throughout a long and grueling season is a hidden advantage. Historically, they’ve managed squad fatigue better than most rivals, using depth to maintain performance across multiple competitions. That stamina could prove vital in the final stretch when injuries and fatigue inevitably mount.
In contrast, Arsenal have struggled at times to manage intensity and consistency, particularly when juggling domestic title ambitions with cup runs and European fixtures.
6. Psychological Edge in Big Moments
City’s squad is battle-tested in high-pressure environments. Players and manager Pep Guardiola know what it takes to win close title races — and that nerve and experience can make all the difference in pivotal moments. This psychological advantage can often translate into points gained in tight matches that might fluster a less hardened side.
City’s repeated experience in runners-up finishes and title defenses gives them a mental edge when chasing down a leader, something Arsenal will be aware of as pressure increases down the home stretch.
7. Head-to-Head and Key Fixtures
A crucial fixture — Manchester City vs. Arsenal at the Etihad Stadium later in the season — could directly decide the title. A win for City at home would not only slash the point gap but also swing momentum wildly in their favour, leaving Arsenal to recover in a pressure cooker. Anecdotes from pundits suggest that results in big matches like this have historically shaped the destiny of title races.
Conclusion: City’s Comeback Still in Play
While Arsenal remain the favourites on paper — especially with their strong form earlier in the season — the dynamics of a 38-game campaign mean nothing is guaranteed. A combination of Arsenal’s recent slips, City’s experience in title chases, games in hand, squad depth, favorable odds, and key head-to-head fixtures keeps Manchester City right in the hunt. As the run-in approaches, every point dropped by Arsenal is an opportunity for City to seize the initiative and complete a dramatic late-season turnaround.
Whether City will do it is still uncertain — but all signs point toward a thrilling battle for the Premier League crown, with City poised to capitalize if Arsenal falter further
